President Obama

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J
– President Barack Obama’s support in New Jersey has rebounded from its low in
August, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Half of Garden State
voters now say the president deserves a second term, up from 43 percent two
months ago. At the same time, nearly two-thirds of voters are happy with Gov.
Chris Christie’s announcement that he will not run for president in 2012.
Voters are somewhat unsure whether Christie has the personality to make a good
president, with 47 percent agreeing, and 49 percent disagreeing, much along
partisan lines.

“As the presidential race start to jell, President Obama may have
benefited from Christie’s decision to stay out,” said poll Director David
Redlawsk, a professor of political science at Rutgers University.
“Had the governor jumped in, New
Jersey voters would have had a tougher decision:
support the home state guy, or a Democratic president. What we’re seeing now is
at least some movement back to New
Jersey’s blue-state history. Even so, the election is
far off and the Republican race is still not settled. Obama can take nothing
for granted.”

Results are from a poll of 903 adults, including a sample of 821
registered voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from
Oct. 6-9. The full sample of registered voters reported here has a margin of
error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Obama re-elect returns to positive territory

Obama has seen a significant
turnaround in his New Jersey
favorability ratings since August, when more voters wanted to deny a second
term than thought he deserved it. Half of voters now feel favorable toward the
president, while 41 percent are unfavorable. Independent voters remain one of
the keys to shifts in support. In August, independents were very negative, with
49 percent unfavorable and 36 percent favorable. Independents are still
slightly negative, but only by 47 percent to 41 percent.
Democrats’ favorability also has increased, from 76 percent in August to 83
percent.

Voters are also more positive about the president’s job performance than
they were in August: 38 percent give him an A or B grade, compared to only 33
percent in the summer. Meanwhile, 31 percent now give him a D or F, down from
37 percent.

As a result, by 50 percent to 42
percent, voters are more likely to say Obama deserves a second term. This
compares to only 43 percent for re-election with 47 percent opposed two months
ago. Democrats’ support for re-election has increased 5 percent since August to
85 percent. Independents also have become slightly more positive; 50 percent
oppose a second term, a drop of five points. Thirty-eight percent now say he
deserves a second term, compared to 33 percent in August.

“What Obama has going for him in New Jersey is simply that it is still a
Democratic state when it comes to voting at the national level,” said Redlawsk.
“We also see some evidence that both Democrats and many independents are
happier with Obama now as he more frequently defends his positions and blames
Republicans for the gridlock in Washington.”

Happy he’s not running, voters give Christie
improved ratings

Gov. Christie

New Jersey voters roundly agree with
Christie’s decision to not run for president: nearly two-thirds are happy he is
not running. Just over half with a favorable impression of Christie are happy,
as are three-quarters of those with an unfavorable impression. While only 54
percent of Republicans are pleased, 61 percent of independents and 72 percent
of Democrat feel the same.  

Those who like the governor also
think he has the personality to be president: 76 percent agree that his
personality “would help him be a successful president.” Those less favorable
disagree, with only 14 percent saying his personality would lead to success. Independents
are split: 49 percent agree, 47 percent disagree. Still, 53 percent who think
his personality would help him be a good president are happy he is not a
candidate this time around.

Overall, Christie now enjoys a 49 percent to 39 percent favorability
margin. In August, he was upside down, 45 percent to 47 percent. This
improvement is mostly driven by independents, who now favor the governor by 19
points, up 17 points since August. Favorability among Democrats stands at 26 percent,
a gain of six points over two months ago.

“Since our last poll, New
Jersey has faced natural disasters and most observers
say the governor handled them well,” said Redlawsk. “That and his decision not
to run for president leave us unsurprised about the improvement in Christie’s
favorability ratings. He is at the highest point since last December, but he
still remains in the same relatively narrow range of support he has had since
taking office.”

Forty-four percent of voters grade Christie’s job performance A or B; 38
percent did so in August. Those assigning failing or near-failing grades have
declined from 42 percent to 28 percent.

Many Republicans remain unsatisfied with choices

While voters overall are pleased
that Christie is not a candidate, GOP voters are more mixed, with 54 percent at
least somewhat happy with the decision, and 39 percent somewhat or very unhappy.
Christie’s decision, along with the failure of Texas Gov. Rick Perry to sustain
his initial momentum, has left Republicans somewhat less satisfied with their
options than they were immediately after Perry announced in August. At that
time, 65 percent of a small sample of   Republican and Republican-leaning voters was
satisfied with their choices. Now, only 59 percent are, though more (11
percent) are very satisfied than in August (4 percent).

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney appears to be benefiting from both Christie’s decision and Perry’s
collapse. Among GOP and GOP-leaners, Romney has gained eight percentage points
to 24 percent since August in an open-ended question about the party’s
nomination. Perry drops from 14 percent to 6 percent. Herman Cain, up to 10
percent from essentially no following, is well behind in second place. Despite
not running, Christie remains third at 7 percent, followed by Perry. No other
candidate gets more than 5 percent of mentions. Another 5 percent say they
don’t like any of the candidates and 38 percent are not sure who they support.

Tea Party Republicans continue to support Romney as Cain moves up and
Perry down

Tea Party
supporters (50 percent of New Jersey Republicans) are now just as likely to
support Romney as are other Republicans, a gain of four points for Romney.
Perry’s support has dropped from 16 percent to 10 percent among Tea Party
supporters. Cain, not even mentioned by Tea Party supporters in August, is now
supported by 13 percent, second only to Romney. Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle
Bachmann has fallen off the radar, from 8 percent to less than 3 percent. 

The Republican nomination in New
Jersey: stability and change

While Romney improves his lead in New
Jersey, the GOP field appears very fluid. Perry’s
rapid rise and fall has left many Republicans searching for an alternative.
“While Perry initially looked like a serious threat to Romney here, his
performance has soured many Garden State Republicans, and Romney has pulled
well away,” said Redlawsk. “Cain, now second, is just the latest in a series of
candidates Republican voters have considered. Whether he will have the staying
power Bachmann and Perry lacked remains to be seen. With only one-quarter of
Republicans willing or able to name Romney as their preferred candidate, there
remains a lot of room in the race.”