NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – More than half of New Jersey voters most likely to turn out for November’s legislative elections say their vote will be in support of or opposition to Gov. Chris Christie, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. While Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead in statewide generic ballot tests, a majority of likely voters sees the election as a referendum on Christie: 28 percent will vote to support the governor while 26 percent will vote to oppose him.

Among all likely voters, including those leaning toward a party, 48 percent support Democrats for the Assembly and 33 percent support Republicans, a 15-point margin. Half say they want a Democratic-controlled Legislature, while 40 percent want Republicans to take over. But among just those who say their vote will express support or opposition to Christie, Assembly Democrats lead by only 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent. Christie-motivated voters cut the desire for Democratic control in half, with 51 percent preferring Democratic control and 46 percent preferring Republicans.

“While turnout is likely to be very low, voters motivated by Christie may be more likely to show up, and if so, the statewide margin may well be tighter than our overall numbers,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “Voters need a reason to turn out in legislative elections, and Christie is apparently giving many of them that reason.”

Results are from a poll of 903 adults, including a sample of 821 registered and 603 likely voters conducted among both landline and cell phone households from Oct. 6-9. The sample of registered voters reported here has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, while the likely voter sample has a margin of +/-4.0 percentage points.

To read the entire poll, click here. 

Media Contact: David Redlawsk
732-932-9384, ext. 285
E-mail: redlawsk@rutgers.edu